Demand of registrations in the TLD affects the registry operator because the fee that is paid to the registry operator partially depends on the number of registrations that are performed. This is the reason the demand projections are included here. Please see section C12 of the sponsoring organization’s proposal for more information.
While the number of information appliances increases, it is anticipated that not all devices will demand a domain name. As new technologies, devices and marketing efforts make customers aware of domain name potential and uses, demand will increase. Group One Registry does not expect to capture total demand, even in the early stages of the new TLD development. It is anticipated that Group One Registry’s market share will decrease from 2001 to 2004 as the size of the market increases and more competitors target the numeric domain name market.
D13.2.5.1. 90% Confidence Level (worst case)
We have included financial projections for three scenarios. The 90% Confidence level scenario is nine times as likely to be met than not. In other words, we are 90% confident that our actual demand will be better than the level projected in the 90% Confidence scenario. The 90% Confidence scenario is the worst case scenario presented.
Our 90% Confidence scenario shows that we expect 494,000 subscribers in 2001, increasing to roughly 5.6 million in 2004. As the graphic shows, this volume of subscribers represents an increase from only .05% to .37% of the worldwide installed base of Internet ready appliances, excluding PCs and email servers.
While the total number of subscribers increases, this represents a decrease in Group One Registry’s market share from 18.17% to 14.27% of the market demand that we expect to result from increased competition in the numeric domain name space.
D13.2.5.2. 50% Confidence Level (base case)
The 50% Confidence level scenario is equally likely to be exceeded as met. It is our base case scenario.
Our 50% Confidence scenario shows that we expect 951,000 subscribers in 2001, increasing to roughly 10 million in 2004. As the graphic shows, this volume of subscribers represents an increase from .11% to .66% of the worldwide installed base of Internet ready appliances.
While the total number of subscribers increases, this represents a decrease in Group One Registry’s market share from 35% to 25.52% of the market demand that we expect to result from increased competition in the numeric domain name space.
D13.2.5.3. 10% Confidence Level (best case)
The 10% Confidence level scenario is nine times as likely to not be met as to be exceeded. It is our best case scenario.
Our 10% Confidence scenario shows that we expect 1.36 million subscribers in 2001, increasing to roughly 15 million in 2004. As the graphic shows, this volume of subscribers represents an increase from roughly .15% to .99% of the worldwide installed base of Internet ready appliances. As stated earlier, this increased penetration into the market will be driven by the number of new shipments of devices as appliance manufacturers stimulate demand through customer education of the utility of domain names or by including a numeric domain name with the purchase of a new device.
While the total number of subscribers increases, this represents a decrease in Group One Registry’s market share from 50% to 38.23% of the market demand that we expect to result from increased competition in the numeric domain name space. We believe our estimated market share of 50% is justified based on the utility and inherent advantage of numeric domain names in this defined market, and since ours will be the only initial marketing campaign striving to develop brand awareness and share in this market.
