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Yesterday's IPv6 Deployment Panel DiscussionYesterday's presentations by Alex Le Heux, João Damas and Gert Döring inspired an interesting discussion on IPv6 deployment issues. The session transcript has been published on the main meeting web site and a video archive of the discussion will be made available for download some time next week. Here are some key points from the discussion:
As Thomas Narten wrote yesterday, the time when the IANA and RIR IPv4 pools are exhausted is drawing nearer. The core DNS operators and IXP operators are getting ready with IPv6. Companies numbering truly huge network deployments want IPv6 because its size allows them to give each interface a unique address - but there aren't always plans to offer IPv6 connectivity to their customers. It's possible that IPv6 take-up will increase in a number of differeny ways over the next few years. It will be interesting. What do you think? By Leo Vegoda at 2007-03-26 11:02 | IPv6 | Floriana 1+2 | ASO | RSSAC | SSAC | Leo Vegoda's blog | login or register to post comments
About IPv4 exhaustion projections.........Carlos, I am sure the five /8s allocated to APNIC in January had an impact on the projections Geoff's scripts produce for the IANA pool of unallocated IPv4 space. The IANA and RIR pools' depletion rates are linked to the demand for IPv4 space and projections and predictions are difficult because it is so difficult to account for people. His comments at the APNIC 23 meeting earlier this month were very interesting. He said:
One of the first runs on the bank happened in 1723 in Paris. Two people were killed in the rush. Scarcity is a very strange phenomenon when it gets close to the end and the behaviours that happen as a result of very, very overt scarcity are impossible to model. I have not modeled that here. What I'm saying here is that, if we're all nice to each other and orderly, that's the outcome. I cannot give you any data from the data that I have that would say what happens if industry believes that the last-chance shop has just opened up. I have no idea. I'm not sure any of us can model that, but that's the best answer I can provide you if that's any help at all. We need to bear this in mind when looking at projections based on mathematical models. Regards, Leo Impact of IPv4 exhaustion on any countries' ISP business...I specially did get a bad feeling about the question being raised by a Jordan Government person(didn't catch the name): i didn't feel he got a proper and clear answer... Imho, he should have heard IPv6 should be something to have in mind because IPv4 address exhaustion can in fact endanger internet companies' business in Jordan (in the same way it will in every other country!) in the medium/long run. In fact, it's the second time i get the same feeling... once in an ITU IPv6 session someone did a similar question and nobody supplied a proper answer too... :-( I'm blaming myself for not having stepped up to the mike on that moment (despite a small crisis on the event's network i was trying to debug...), but i really hope next time someone speaks out loud why *everybody* should take v6 seriously. :-) |
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About IPv4 exhaustion projections.........
I've been looking frequently at Geoff Huston's tool, and had in mind a 2012 target for IANA->RIR and 2013 for RIR->LIR/NIR exaustion. But... last time i looked i see projections changed to 2011 and 2012. Looking at the IANA website i can see that this was probably caused by a recent IANA->APNIC allocation... Am I wrong? Any comments???